Introduction to Stochastic Processes

A stochastic process is a collection of random variables indexed by time, {Xt}\{X_t\}. It describes a system evolving under uncertainty, and it is the natural language for prices, rates and volatility.

The classification that matters most is time and state: discrete or continuous in each. A random walk is discrete time; Brownian motion is continuous in both.

The processes to know

Random walk. Xt+1=Xt+εtX_{t+1} = X_t + \varepsilon_t with independent steps. The discrete prototype of a price series, and it embodies the weak-form efficient market claim: the current level contains everything the history had to say.

Brownian motion WtW_t. The continuous limit of a random walk, with three defining properties: independent increments, increments normally distributed with variance proportional to elapsed time, and continuous paths. The variance property is where σT\sigma\sqrt{T} scaling comes from.

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