Volatility, 24/7 Markets, and Gap Risk

Crypto trades continuously: no open, no close, no weekend. That single fact changes risk management more than the volatility level does.

The volatility level

Crypto volatility typically runs several times that of equities. Where a major equity index might realise 15% to 20% annualised, major crypto assets frequently run 60% to 100%, and smaller tokens far more.

Applying the square-root rule with continuous trading uses 365 days rather than 252:

σannual=σdaily365\sigma_{\text{annual}} = \sigma_{\text{daily}}\sqrt{365}

So 4% daily volatility annualises to about 76%. Using 252 by habit understates it by roughly 20%, which is a small error that compounds through every risk calculation.

Key takeaway

Crypto annualises over 365 days, not 252, because it never closes. Carrying an equity convention across is a systematic understatement of risk.

Gaps happen inside the session

In equities, gaps occur overnight: the market closes, news arrives, and it reopens elsewhere. Continuous trading was supposed to eliminate that.

It does not. Crypto gaps during trading, because liquidity varies enormously through the day. A large liquidation into a thin book at 4am produces a move as violent as any overnight gap, with the difference that you cannot rely on a closing price and there is no auction to reset.

Liquidity concentrates during overlapping US and Asian hours and thins considerably outside them. The worst moves therefore tend to occur when the fewest participants are available to absorb them.

What continuous trading removes

Closing prices. No official mark, which complicates valuation, performance measurement and any strategy referencing a close.

Auctions. No concentrated liquidity event to execute size into.

Overnight and weekend strategies. Open-close and overnight-drift effects have no crypto analogue.

A pause. Traditional markets close, which gives participants time to assess, fund margin calls and think. Crypto offers none of that, and cascading liquidations can run for hours without interruption.

The operational cost

Continuous markets mean continuous monitoring. Positions must be manageable when nobody is watching, which pushes firms toward automated risk controls, hard position limits, and automatic liquidation rules.

This is why crypto desks tend to be more automated than their traditional counterparts. It is not sophistication; it is that a human cannot cover a market that never closes.

Tip

Size crypto positions for what can happen while you are asleep in the thinnest hour of the week. The largest moves reliably occur when liquidity is lowest, and that is not when you are watching.

Test your knowledge

A crypto asset realises a daily volatility of \( 3.5\% \). Using the annualisation convention appropriate to a market that never closes, what is its annualised volatility, expressed as a percentage? Round your answer to one decimal place.
Continuous trading was supposed to remove the overnight gaps that equity markets suffer. In practice crypto still gaps violently. Why?