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Arbitrage

ETF Arbitrage Game

Calculate NAV from weighted stock baskets, spot mispricings between ETF bid/ask prices, and race three AI traders to the edge.

Settings

Game difficulty

Upgrade to unlock Medium, Hard and Custom difficulty.

Number of rounds
6
Time per round
20s
Enable market events
Off

On easy difficulty, prices are rounded to tenths and weights to whole numbers for easier mental math.

Statistics

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How to play

Objective

Spot mispricings between an ETF and its underlying stock basket. Buy underpriced ETFs, sell overpriced ones, and compete against 3 AI traders to maximize your P&L.

What is NAV?

The Net Asset Value (NAV) is the fair value of the ETF, calculated as the weighted sum of the underlying stock prices. Each round you see a table like this:

TickerWeightPriceW × P
AAPL0.25$200.00$50.00
MSFT0.25$400.00$100.00
GOOGL0.25$150.00$37.50
AMZN0.25$200.00$50.00
$237.50

NAV = sum of W × P = $237.50

Now compare the NAV to the ETF prices shown below the table:

ETF bid$233.20
ETF ask$233.40

In this example the NAV ($237.50) is higher than the ask ($233.40), so the ETF is underpriced, so you should Buy. If the NAV were lower than the bid, the ETF would be overpriced and you’d Sell.

Each round
  • A random stock basket is chosen at the start and stays the same for the whole game
  • Each round the stock prices shift slightly, the Change and % columns show which moved
  • Calculate the NAV mentally by summing all weight × price values
  • Compare your NAV to the ETF bid and ask prices
  • Decide: Buy (NAV > ask), Sell (NAV < bid), or Skip if the difference is too small
  • Choose how many units (1-20) to trade, more units means more risk and reward
  • Race against 3 AI traders who are also calculating and trading
Scoring example

Continuing the example above, you buy 10 units at the ask price of $233.40:

Gross P&L
($237.50 - $233.40) × 10 = +$41.00
Transaction cost
-$10.00
First trader bonus
+$6.20 (20%)
Net P&L
+$37.20

If you had traded in the wrong direction (sold instead of bought), the gross P&L would be -$41.00, plus you’d still pay the $10 transaction cost.

Tips
  • Sum the W × P column to quickly find the NAV, the table does the multiplication for you
  • Speed matters, be the first to trade to earn a 20% bonus on your profit
  • Skip small opportunities, if the difference between NAV and ETF price is small, the $10 transaction cost may eat your profit
  • Size wisely, more units amplifies both gains and losses